![]() Indeed, the displacement caused by this earthquake and the strain of the rupture led to the elastic-rebound theory of earthquakes. Horizontal displacement was observed in many areas with the largest at 21 feet near Point Reyes Station in Marin County. This earthquake created the longest fault rupture ever observed in the continental United States, extending nearly 300 miles along the northern San Andreas Fault. In the wake of this, the insurance industry had to significantly change the assessment of impacts from fire following earthquakes. At least 50 to 60 fires burned in the city for four days, resulting in devastating losses that significantly exceeded the shake losses. Pipelines were broken-shutting off water supply to the city-and roads were impassable, which in turn made it impossible to fight the fires that ignited due to overturned stoves and broken gas lines. Pavement buckled, houses were destroyed, sewers and water mains were broken, and streetcar tracks were torn and bent out of shape. In San Francisco, the effects were felt for about one minute from the mainshock, which was followed by several aftershocks. Shaking was felt throughout California and in parts of Nevada and Oregon. It caused an estimated 3,000 deaths and USD 524 million in property loss (1906 currency), due to both shake damage and resulting fires. The M7.8 earthquake that struck San Francisco on April 18, 1906, remains one of the most devastating earthquakes in the history of California. ![]() Historical Earthquakes San Francisco, California (1906) The model reflects recent updates to seismic and ground motion information, as well as updated building characteristics of insured properties. Policy conditions and earthquake insurance take-up rates are based on estimates by state insurance departments and client claims data. Losses include demand surge and fire following earthquake and account for tsunami, liquefaction, and landslide. *Modeled loss to property, contents, and business interruption and additional living expenses for residential, mobile home, commercial, and auto exposures as of December 31, 2016. Estimated insured losses for the top 10 historical earthquakes based on current exposures. The resulting estimates of insured losses in the chart below represent what these events would cost the insurance industry today based on AIR's detailed industry exposure database and peril-specific take-up rates. earthquake model includes significant improvements for assessing the vulnerability of non-engineered wood frame construction, which constitutes the overwhelming majority of residential buildings in the United States. ![]() Among other improvements to the vulnerability component, our updated U.S. AIR researchers have also updated the liquefaction module and added two new sub-perils: tsunami and landslide. The fire-following module was updated to include a substantially increased resolution, a cutting-edge approach to fire ignition and fire spread modeling, and a comprehensively updated fire suppression component. The updated suites of ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) implemented in the model reflect the wide range of tectonic settings within the United States. AIR’s model includes updated views of tectonic and induced earthquake risk in the United States based on newly available data. The events were simulated using the significantly updated AIR Earthquake Model for the United States, which was released in June. The following chart shows the estimated impact of the top 10 historical U.S. A recurrence of those earthquakes today would cost the industry in excess of USD 59 billion. For example, when a series of three large earthquakes occurred in the Central United States in the winter of 1811-1812, the largest nearby town-New Madrid, Missouri-was home to fewer than 500 inhabitants. It is therefore more interesting and relevant to consider the potential impacts of historical events were they to recur today. ![]() The number and value of properties in the United States, particularly in areas at risk, have increased dramatically in the past century, well beyond the rate of inflation. While these losses may be trended to today’s dollars, they are not trended to today’s exposures. Rankings of historical insured earthquake losses in the United States are based on reported insured losses at the time the events took place.
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